What’s Behind Crypto Market’s Red Zone? Is Uptober Just a Crypto Myth?

Uptober is one of the most awaited events in the crypto industry, where users can witness the biggest crypto market rally before the 2025 Bull Run. Since the market was quite bullish in September, the expectations are way higher for October. However, in the last three days, the market has plummeted instead of rising, concerning many. Here, the Bitcoin price has declined to $60K, and the same is happening in the case of the altcoins. As a result, the entire market is covered in red, indicating heavy losses.

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Why Is Crypto Market In Red Zone Today?

The political situation is worsening in the Middle East, where the Israel-Iran conflict has pushed the Bitcoin price down, causing a selling pressure in the market. Just recently, Israel attacked Iran on October 1, causing a stir of war among the countries. It resulted in a drop in the crypto market as political events heavily concern the Finance industry.

After this incident, Bitcoin saw a major fall, impacting the rest of the market. Here, the Ethereum price has dropped to $2,361, Solana is down to $137, and the list goes on. At the time of reporting, all the cryptocurrencies have witnessed a significant fall, bringing the global market cap down to $2.09 Trillion after a 3.77% drop. More importantly, the user sentiments have dropped to fear on the Fear and Greed market index, indicating users’ doubts and concerns in placing trades.

Interestingly, a crypto trader has made $2 Million in profit, beating the odds of the market’s downtrend. However, this does not happen with every trader, explaining the 18% drop in the trading volume of $94 Billion.

Is Uptober Just A Crypto Myth?

The ongoing struggling crypto market news is worrisome for investors. This is because the market is in a downtrend, not in the uptrend as anticipated earlier. With this, many have suspected whether Uptober is just a crypto myth.

Crypto Uptober is acknowledged after analyzing the Bitcoin price growth on a monthly basis. In the last 13 years, the crypto market was in an uptrend 11 times during October. With this probability and many other factors, like days past the Bitcoin Halving, many crypto analysts and industry leaders have spoken of the uptrend rally for October.

However, as the market is on a downtrend these days, many have questioned its odds. One crypto analyst believes that we would not get any as the structure mid-term is bearish, moving to neutral and trying to get bullish. With this, he has concluded that ATH will take time, but there is a bullish possibility in the long term.

Structure mid term is bearish moving to neutral and trying to get bullish. ATH will take time.

Short term structure suggests 1-3 wks stand down to cool off before the next bullish attempt.

I don’t think we get Uptober, sideways Oct, and Nov-Dec for laser eye parties.

Long term…

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 2, 2024

Crypto Market changes indefinitely, and expecting the same metrics to work every time is not the best approach. However, none of the previous Uptober began at the beginning of the month. It often began in mid-October, and there is still time for that, justifying why Up-October might happen.

A Crypto analyst, Whale Moca, revealed that Uptober to begin on October 11, as confirmed by 2020 and 2017 data. Moreover, October 15th is another anticipated date, as it happened in 2023 and 2021. This leaves hope for this up-October event to happen this year as well. However, this will only happen if the selling pressure due to the Israel-Iran conflict ends.

You’ve probably seen this screenshot a lot.

“Uptober”.

But what you haven’t been shown:

Uptober never really started on October 1st.

Here’s when the parabolic moves that drove the returns you see in the image actually started:

2023: October 15th.

2021: October 5th.

2020:… pic.twitter.com/ItXCvQfr0s

— wale.moca 🐳 (@waleswoosh) October 1, 2024

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Final Thoughts

After the crypto market news favored a downtrend, fear took over the investors, which resulted in the questioning the integrity of Uptober. However, the previous data indicates the beginning of the uptrend in the middle of the month, not the beginning. More importantly, the current downtrend is the result of the worsening Israel-Iran tension. If it deepens, the entire Finance market could witness a major collision. If not, there is a possibility of a bullish October.